Not “What are the Experts Predicting”… But What Are The “Expectations?*” … And Why Should Investors Not Just Blindly Follow
It is important to note there is an astersik on the word “Expectations” in the title above.
In an article in FORBES as investors are trying to see what everybody else and their brother thought was going to happen in the 2019 stock market… and it kinda struck a note.
One of those writers led his ‘predictions’ column by saying:
“I have some figures for what to expect this year from Wall Street. That verb is carefully chosen. An expectation is not a prediction.
With precise predictions, as opposed to expectations, you could time the market. Alas, I don’t have precise predictions. If I could predict the Dow, I wouldn’t be writing this essay. I would be on a yacht trading options.”
He continued: “Expectations are still useful, though. They do two things. First, they tell you where to put most of your long-term money. Since the expectation is higher on stocks than high-quality bonds (see below), youngsters investing for the year 2059 should be in stocks. They can weather the occasional 50% crashes that will interrupt this century’s bull market.
The other thing an expectation can do is inject some realism into one’s life. The expected return on stocks is much lower than the historical return on stocks. This may mean that retirement plans could be hopelessly out of date and that astute investors should increase their savings.”
…And Why You Should Not Just Blindly Follow: Your Case Is The Most Important To You
Avoid all ‘predictions’ but take in consideration what is likely TO happen or NOT to happen… Rely upon YOUR perceptions of the market and not blindly follow someone else’s reading of the market’s tea leaves!
But, now… having said that… for your edification and entertainment… here ARE some 2019 predictions from all around the Street…
USA TODAY points out:
The most bullish call: In his 2019 outlook, Deutsche Bank’s Chadha says the market has already absorbed a lot of bad news. Stocks, he predicts, will eventually benefit from a pickup in earnings growth in the later part of 2019 that will result in solid profit gains of about 9 percent for the S&P 500. “Underlying growth,” he wrote, will be “relatively strong.”
The most bearish call: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson, one of the earliest Wall Street pros to warn of brewing troubles in the stock market – which he dubbed a “rolling bear market” – expects the market to be held back in the new year by “disappointing” earnings, according to his “2019 U.S. Equities Outlook” published on Nov. 26.
While Wilson thinks the stock market remains in a long-term bull despite its recent drubbing, he says 2019 “will look a lot like 2018.”
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